Balkanizing Pakistan: A Boon or a Bigger Threat for India?

Fragmentation Momentum: Ethnic unrest, economic collapse, and separatist movements (especially in Balochistan) have revived the idea of Pakistan disintegrating into smaller entities like Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Ideological Inertia: Even if territorially reduced, the rump Pakistani state—dominated by Punjab—will likely retain its anti-Hindu, anti-India hostility due to deeply entrenched ideological, military, and institutional narratives.
Military Threat Persists: Pakistan’s army, the central force behind its India policy, will remain powerful post-fragmentation, continue backing proxy warfare, and control a significant nuclear arsenal, posing ongoing threats.
Strategic Caution for India: Though balkanization could benefit India by reducing border conflict and resource strain, it also risks unleashing chaos, loose nukes, and a more radicalized mini-Pakistan.
Long-Term Policy Outlook: India’s zero-tolerance stance post-Operation Sindoor has limited Pakistan’s military options, but true peace hinges on dismantling the ideological and military structures sustaining Pakistan’s hostility.

The idea of Pakistan disintegrating into multiple independent entities – Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a diminished Punjab – has gained traction in recent years amid escalating internal crises. Most recently, when India conducted retaliatory airstrikes against Pakistan as part of Operation Sindoor [1], there were strident calls from parliamentarians, social media, and the general public to dismember Pakistan. At the very least, they expected India to launch an army strike that would liberate Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

Most Indians – and many foreign observers – believe that the balkanization of Pakistan is tantalizingly within reach. Indeed, for the first time since India militarily separated Bangladesh from Pakistan, there is a full-blown guerrilla movement within the restive Balochistan province. Ethnic tensions, economic collapse, political instability, and growing separatist movements have fueled speculation about the possible fragmentation of Pakistan. However, even if the Islamic country were to break up territorially, the rump state that remains will continue to pose a significant threat to India and will not abandon its entrenched anti-Hindu rhetoric. This persistent hostility is deeply rooted in Pakistan’s ideological foundations, institutional structures, military doctrine, and societal narratives.

In fact, Pakistan’s breakup could unleash a Pandora’s Box of problems, such as loose nukes and a rump state that is more belligerent, Islamist, and Hinduphobic than ever. India’s political leadership, therefore, has to think long and hard before undertaking an operation that ends up balkanizing Pakistan. Above all, it should have a plan to manage these new issues in dealing with the rump state.

The View from ‘Virginia’: Post Indian-Invasion Pakistan

On December 9, 1971, as Indian Army columns were racing towards Dhaka, and the navy and air force were pounding Pakistan round the clock, the Americans realized their vassal’s game was up. Factoring in India’s war plans, the CIA prepared a secret document titled ‘Implications of an Indian Victory Over Pakistan.’[2] The report listed New Delhi’s aims, which were obtained via the agency’s spy in the Indian federal cabinet [3]:

The liberation of Bangladesh.
The incorporation into India of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
The destruction of Pakistan’s armored and air force strength so that Pakistan can never again threaten India.

The report and its conjectures may be nearly five decades old, but they hold valuable lessons for the Indian political leadership. It presents a realistic scenario of how the situation could pan out in the event of Pakistan’s breakup following an Indian invasion of its Punjabi heartland.

The CIA says that though the Indian military would have withdrawn after its victory, the area would also probably have suffered considerable damage during the fighting. “Much would depend on the extent of damage to such important and expensive Indus Valley hydroelectric and irrigation projects as the Tarbela and Mangla dams and the industrial plants, centered mostly in Karachi.”

However, America’s bigger concern was Pakistan’s political future. The agency adds: “Beyond this, West Pakistan might fall apart politically. The area suffers from regional antagonisms and hostilities; a major defeat could permit the emergence of centrifugal forces which could shatter West Pakistan into as many as three to four separate countries, successors to the four states which now make up most of the nation.” (Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.)

The Sindhis, “often hostile to the Punjabis, could declare their independence.” The Pashtuns of Afghanistan might take the opportunity to reunite with their brother Pashtuns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. “Indeed, were Pakistan to fall apart, the Afghans would probably help the process along by moving to detach (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and bringing it under their protection.” Balochistan could either remain attached to Punjab or be absorbed by either Afghanistan or Iran.

After the centrifugal forces have played out, what remains would be a “not inconsiderable country.” In the CIA’s view, provided it had not been too badly damaged, Pakistani Punjab would recover economically fairly quickly. But while the rump state “would remain the focus of bitterly anti-Hindu, anti-Indian sentiments,” it would no longer pose a threat to India. “Nor would it have the international stature previously enjoyed by a united Pakistan. Rather, it would probably be viewed by most powers as a state on the border of Afghanistan: remote and of no great consequence.”

Historical and Ideological Foundations of Pakistan’s Hostility Toward India and Hindus

A geographically diminished Pakistan – shrinking to a quarter of its current area – is clearly good news for India, as New Delhi would no longer have to set aside a significant chunk of its defense expenditure to combat Pakistan. A considerably shorter India-Pakistan international border of 553 km against 3,323 km currently would also lower India’s headache in infiltration and cross-border smuggling. Plus, losing Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would increase Pakistan’s strategic vulnerability. In all, it’s a win-win for India, right?

Right, but with some caveats. If Pakistan were a normal country, yes, these above gains would be considered a clean sweep by India. But Pakistan is not a normal country, and therefore, India is doomed to be stuck with a hostile neighbor.

To understand why the breakup of Pakistan will not diminish its threat to India, it is essential to revisit the ideological underpinnings of Pakistan’s creation. The two-nation theory, formulated by Muhammad Ali Jinnah and other leaders of the All-India Muslim League, argued that Muslims and Hindus were distinct nations with irreconcilable religious, cultural, and political differences. This theory justified the partition of British India in 1947 and the creation of Pakistan as a homeland for Muslims.[4]

However, this ideological foundation was not merely about religion but also about defining an identity in opposition to Hindus and India. Pakistan’s founding documents, political discourse, and educational curricula have long emphasized the notion of Muslims as a separate nation, often portraying Hindus as the ‘other’ and a threat to Muslim identity and survival.

Most recently, in April 2025, Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir went on a deranged rant, regurgitating the same ideological tropes about the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent having nothing in common with the Hindus. Addressing overseas Pakistanis in Islamabad, he said: “You have to tell Pakistan’s story to your children so that they don’t forget that our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. “Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations; we are not one nation.”[5]

Like the vast majority of Pakistanis, the general is a product of the ideological divide that has been perpetuated and institutionalized over decades:

Education and Textbooks: Pakistani textbooks have been criticized by international observers for promoting anti-Hindu and anti-India narratives. Students are often taught a version of history that demonizes Hindus and India, portraying them as aggressors and oppressors.
Political Rhetoric: Successive Pakistani governments, military leaders, and religious parties have reinforced anti-Hindu and anti-India sentiments to mobilize public opinion and consolidate power.
Religious and Social Narratives: Sectarian and religious groups have contributed to a culture of intolerance, often targeting Hindu minorities within Pakistan with discrimination, forced conversions, and violence.

Military’s Role in Sustaining Hostility

Pakistan’s military is the most powerful institution in the country and has historically played a decisive role in shaping national policy, especially toward India. The military’s worldview is deeply influenced by the Kashmir conflict and the perceived existential threat from India. This has led to a doctrine of strategic hostility that includes:

Support for Proxy Groups: Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have supported militant groups operating in Kashmir and other parts of India, aiming to destabilize Indian governance and foment unrest.
Nuclear Deterrence and Conventional Posturing: Despite economic challenges, Pakistan has invested heavily in military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to counterbalance India’s conventional superiority.
Internal Legitimacy: The military uses India’s external threat bogey to justify its dominance over civilian governments and maintain national unity. Anti-India rhetoric serves as a unifying factor in a country fragmented by ethnic and sectarian divisions.

Even if Pakistan breaks up, the rump state’s military leadership will retain this strategic posture. The military’s institutional interests are tied to maintaining hostility toward India to preserve its power and legitimacy.

Ethnic and Regional Fragmentation

The breakup of Pakistan into four or more independent states – Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a reduced Punjab – would undoubtedly alter the geopolitical landscape. However, several factors suggest that the rump state will continue its antagonistic stance:

Punjab’s Dominance in the Rump State: Punjab, the most populous and militarily significant province, will form the core of the rump state. Punjab’s political elite and military establishment have historically been the architects of Pakistan’s anti-India policies. This continuity means that the ideological and strategic framework will remain intact.

Ideological Entrenchment: The two-nation theory and anti-Hindu rhetoric are not regional phenomena but are embedded in the national identity that the rump state will inherit. The military and political elites will continue to use these narratives to unify the population and justify policies.

Economic and Political Instability: Fragmentation will likely exacerbate economic and political instability in the rump state, making it more reliant on nationalist rhetoric to maintain cohesion. In times of crisis, governments often turn to external enemies to divert attention from internal problems.

Continuity of Proxy Warfare: A shrunken Pakistan will likely continue supporting militant groups as a low-cost method to challenge India, particularly over Kashmir. Proxy warfare remains a central pillar of Pakistan’s strategy, and there is little incentive to abandon it.

Nuclear Rogue: The residual state will inherit Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which is estimated at around 180 warheads – assuming some of them were not put out of commission by India’s airstrikes on Pakistan’s underground nuclear storage site in the Kirana Hills.[6]

Persistence of Anti-Hindu Rhetoric

Anti-Hindu rhetoric in Pakistan is not merely a byproduct of political conflict but a systemic issue deeply ingrained in society:

Hate Speech and Media: Pakistani media, including social media platforms, often propagate anti-Hindu narratives, conspiracy theories, and misinformation that fuel communal hatred.[7]
Violence Against Minorities: Hindu minorities in Pakistan face discrimination, forced conversions, abductions, and attacks on their places of worship. These acts are often ignored or tacitly condoned by authorities.[8]
Religious Nationalism: Islamist parties and clerics frequently use anti-Hindu rhetoric to mobilize followers and influence policy.[9]

Even if Pakistan breaks up, the rump state’s political and religious leadership will likely continue to exploit anti-Hindu sentiment for political gain and social control.

Geopolitical Implications

Pakistan’s hostility toward India is also shaped by its geopolitical alliances and rivalries:

China-Pakistan Nexus: China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), reinforces Pakistan’s regional ambitions and provides economic and military support. China has a strong interest in propping up Pakistan as a counterweight to India, which is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Global Terrorism Concerns: Pakistan’s support for militant groups has drawn international criticism, but global powers have often prioritized strategic interests over pressing Pakistan to change course. That is why Pakistan received a billion-dollar loan from the IMF just days after it sponsored the terror attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Hindus.[10]
Kashmir Problem: The long-standing conflict over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism ensures that hostility remains a central feature of the relationship between the two countries. The Pakistan Army cannot take Kashmir from India militarily, but it keeps the issue on the boil to stir up emotions among the Pakistani public. According to political analyst Muhammad Badar Alam, the sense of a perpetual threat posed by India is “one of the fundamental factors” that gives the military a prominent position in society, politics, and governance.[11]

The rump state will, therefore, continue to leverage these alliances and conflicts to sustain its anti-India posture.

India’s Options

This subcontinental version of the Mexican standoff doesn’t mean that India should not aim for Pakistan’s balkanization. The 1971 War, which resulted in Pakistan losing its eastern wing, did not stop Pakistan’s hostility toward India, but it forever changed the power dynamics in the Indian subcontinent. No longer would a much smaller and militarily weaker country, Pakistan, continue to wage overt war against its larger, more powerful neighbor, India, as it had done on three occasions in 1948, 1965, and 1971. The creation of Bangladesh showcased India’s military strength and established it as the region’s dominant power, resulting in a period of relative peace on the Western front.[12]

After Operation Sindoor, which saw the widespread destruction of terrorist training camps in Pakistan’s Punjab province and massive damage to 11 Pakistani air bases, India declared that the Operation hadn’t ended but was on pause. It indicated that the new normal would be India targeting Pakistani military bases in case of a terror attack on India. Henceforth, Islamic terrorists and their Pakistan Army handlers will be seen as one and the same.

India’s new policy of zero tolerance to terror has placed the Pakistan Army in a straightjacket and caused policy paralysis in Islamabad. If Pakistan goes back to its old ways, it gets clobbered again. If it does nothing, it loses its reason for existence. If it cannot wage war with India or bleed India, the citizens of Pakistanis will question the relevance of an army of 600,000 soldiers. Pakistanis may finally be able to get rid of the tyranny of the generals, say no to jehad with India, and stop becoming synonymous with terror.

Unfortunately, we will more likely see snowfall in the Sahara than the Pakistan Army returning to the barracks. This means that India’s security challenges will remain complex and multifaceted, requiring continued vigilance, strategic preparedness, and diplomatic efforts. Understanding the deep-rooted nature of Pakistan’s antagonism is essential to formulating effective policies that safeguard India’s interests while exploring avenues for peace and stability in the region.

Citations

[1] Operation Sindoor and the Evolution of India’s Military Strategy Against Pakistan War on the Rocks,2025); https://warontherocks.com/2025/05/operation-sindoor-and-the-evolution-of-indias-strategy-against-pakistan/

[2] Implications of an Indian Victory over Pakistan (CIA report available on Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room, December 1971); https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp79r00967a000400020005-1

[3] Report of High CIA Tipster Stirs Furor in India (The Washington Post; 1979); https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP88-01350R000200050003-6.pdf

[4] Exposing the Truth of Two-Nation Theory (Vivek Agnihotri blog); https://vivekagnihotri.com/exposing-the-truth-of-the-two-nation-theory/

[5] Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room (Hindustan Times, 2025); https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/different-from-hindus-pakistan-army-chief-asim-munir-two-nation-theory-jugular-vein-pahalgam-terror-attack-101745382805306.html

[6] What Exactly Are Pakistan’s Kirana Hills? Do They House Country’s Nuclear Weapons? Radiation Rumours To Underground Tunnels- All You Need To Know! (News 24, 2025); https://news24online.com/india/what-exactly-are-pakistans-kirana-hills-do-they-house-countrys-nuclear-weapons-from-radiation-rumours-to-underground-tunnels-all-you-need-to-know/565718/

[7] Hindus in Pakistan Face Rising Online Hate and Disinformation! (Center for the Study of Organized Hate, 2025). https://www.csohate.org/2025/04/14/weaponizing-social-media-against-hindus-in-pakistan/

[8] Forced conversions, rapes, mob lynchings: US report exposes how Pakistan targets Hindus, other minorities | 20 key findings (MoneyControl, 2025); https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/forced-conversions-blasphemy-hysteria-and-more-us-report-exposes-how-pakistan-targets-hindus-other-minorities-20-highlights-article-13030429.html/amp

[9] Viral In Pakistan: Celebrity Cleric Visits Kali Mata Temple, Mocks Hindus And India (Swarajya, 2022); https://swarajyamag.com/world/viral-in-pakistan-celebrity-cleric-visits-kali-mata-temple-mocks-hindus-and-india

[10] Pakistan Seeks $4.9 Billion More In Loans After Missing Growth Target (NDTV World, 2025); https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-seeks-4-9-billion-in-external-loans-after-missing-growth-target-8468522

[11] How conflict with India helped boost the Pakistan military’s domestic image (Al Jazeera, 2025); https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/20/how-conflict-with-india-helped-boost-the-pakistan-militarys-domestic-image

[12] The fight for joy Bangla: How India helped Bangladesh achieve independence (DDNews, 2024); https://ddnews.gov.in/en/the-fight-for-joy-bangla-how-india-helped-bangladesh-achieve-independence/